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Working Paper 2004-028B

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"International Transmission of Inflation among G-7 Countries: A Data-Determined VAR Analysis"
by Jian Yang, Hui Guo, and Zijun Wang

We investigate the international transmission of inflation among G-7 countries using data-determined vector autoregression analysis, as advocated by Swanson and Granger (1997). Over the period 1973 to 2003, we find that unexpected changes in U.S. inflation have large effects on inflation in other countries, although they are not always the dominant international factor. Similarly, shocks to some other countries also have a statistically and economically significant influence on U.S. inflation. Moreover, our evidence indicates that U.S. inflation has become less vulnerable to foreign shocks since the early 1990s, mainly because of the diminished influence from Germany and France.

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Category > Applied Econometrics
Category > Finance
Category > Monetary Policy/Macroeconomics
Author > Hui Guo